The 4-Year Crypto Cycle That Never Really Existed

For more than ten years, the so-called 4-year cycle has been seen as the heartbeat of the crypto market: Bitcoin halving → bull market → bear market → accumulation → repeat.

In 2013, 2017, and 2021, that pattern seemed to fit perfectly.

I believed this myself for years. But now that only Bitcoin seems to have had its bull market — and there are still no clear signs that Altseason could start any moment — I’ve done deeper research and explored new data sources.
This has led to new insights, and I can now say with greater confidence that 2026 will most likely be our year.

I’ve always said our Altseason would come last — that still holds true, only 6 to 12 months later than expected under a ‘normal’ 4-year crypto cycle.

Now that we’re in Bitcoin’s fourth major cycle, we have much more data available. And that data points elsewhere: liquidity, credit, and global money flows drive the markets — not the halving itself.

The Bigger Picture: Business and Debt Cycles

Crypto moves in rhythm with the business cycle (growth ↔ contraction) and the debt cycle (credit expansion ↔ deleveraging). Since 2021 we’ve seen:

• Rapid rate hikes after years of cheap money.
• Quantitative Tightening (QT) withdrawing liquidity.
• Rising government debt in the U.S., EU, China, and Japan.

Low interest rates in 2020–2021 fueled excessive borrowing. Those treasuries now need to be refinanced. Since revenues fall short, new bonds are issued to pay interest on old debt. The inevitable outcome: the money printer must return.